…and then everything changes
You know that melancholy sense we sometimes get when recalling memories of growing up, playing games with your sister in the house you grew up in, visiting your grandma for your tuesday pie, those long days playing on the beach. These memories have a ripe sweetness as we fondly reflect on times we can never get back. The graph below is reproduced via The Standard and Auckland Transport Blog. It illustrates an apparent growing gap between global fuel supply and demand. This is not to suggest that fuel supplies are running out, but economics tell us that once demand outstrips supply the price will start spiraling steadily upwards. All data such as this is a forecast so the timing it is arguable, but unless we develop some amazing new technology the mechanism are inevitable. Just as we inevitably grow old and loose our time and abilities to play, Mankind is aging and the youthful supply of cheap energy is coming to an end, and with this everything changes. Our food supplies are based on cheap oil, our globalized transport systems are based on cheap oil, the design of our cities are based on cheap oil, even the power supply for the internet is based on cheap oil. All this must change. And the data in the graph below is from the USA Department of Energy. This is serious, and its not happening in twenty years, but in two or three years.